1,647
edits
Changes
Jump to navigation
Jump to search
Line 101:
Line 101: − + − #Select climate data source – use a reputable, bias-corrected, high-resolution data source for Canada (e.g., [https://climatedata.ca/? climatedata.ca]) covering at least 1950–2100 − #Define reference period – must overlap with the historical records used for IDF curves − #Define future period – same length as the reference, with anticipated end of service life falling in the middle of the future projection period when possible − #Choose emissions scenarios – use both a representative and a high scenario from the latest [https://wcrp-cmip.org/ Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)] phase − #Select climate change scenarios – scenarios that correspond with emissions scenarios from step 4 should be chosen from the data source in step 1, ensuring they represent variability among global models and account for uncertainty − #Calculate projected temperature change – determine mean annual temperature change between reference and future periods using climate change scenarios − #Summarize results – report both the median and 75th percentile of projected temperature changes from all climate change scenarios for use in future IDF curve calculations. }}
→Estimating future rainfall
* <math>I_{ref,D,RT}</math>: historical rainfall intensity, obtained from IDF data produced by [https://climate.weather.gc.ca/prods_servs/engineering_e.html Environment and Climate Change Canada] using stations that are representative of the project site location and have at least 10 years of complete and validated observations. Refer to [https://www.csagroup.org/store/product/2431590/?srsltid=AfmBOop-F2g5zuHESVcAjvrdPKhgh8Yr2pvKZnqaH97tkLZBCvc-TOCB CSA 231:25] for details on calculating from alternative sources of rainfall observations, if required.
* <math>I_{ref,D,RT}</math>: historical rainfall intensity, obtained from IDF data produced by [https://climate.weather.gc.ca/prods_servs/engineering_e.html Environment and Climate Change Canada] using stations that are representative of the project site location and have at least 10 years of complete and validated observations. Refer to [https://www.csagroup.org/store/product/2431590/?srsltid=AfmBOop-F2g5zuHESVcAjvrdPKhgh8Yr2pvKZnqaH97tkLZBCvc-TOCB CSA 231:25] for details on calculating from alternative sources of rainfall observations, if required.
* <math>CC_{adj}</math>: the rainfall-temperature scaling factor (typically 1.07 unless otherwise justified)
* <math>CC_{adj}</math>: the rainfall-temperature scaling factor (typically 1.07 unless otherwise justified)
* <math>\Delta T</math>: the projected change in local temperature (°C) between the reference and future time periods. The following procedure should be used to obtain <math>\Delta T</math>:
* <math>\Delta T</math>: the projected change in local temperature (°C) between the reference and future time periods. Read Chapter 5 of [https://www.csagroup.org/store/product/2431590/?srsltid=AfmBOopkRT3cosyCstZMacCmlthJxgfo6w6aFIXyuEExGmyBT8zw1vMs CSA 231:25 Developing and interpreting intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) information under a changing climate] for more details on calculating <math>\Delta T</math>.}}
[[File:Screenshot 2025-08-29 140530.png|400px|thumb|right|Risk thresholds are a useful tool when prioritizing climate change impact management efforts. Low impact and low frequency events may not require management planning, while high impact and high frequency events require adaptation strategies (MECP, 2022)<ref name = MECP2022>Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks (MECP). 2022. Low Impact Development Stormwater Management Guidance Manual. https://ero.ontario.ca/public/2022-01/Draft%20LID%20Stormwater%20Management%20Guidance%20Manual%202022.pdf</ref>]]
[[File:Screenshot 2025-08-29 140530.png|400px|thumb|right|Risk thresholds are a useful tool when prioritizing climate change impact management efforts. Low impact and low frequency events may not require management planning, while high impact and high frequency events require adaptation strategies (MECP, 2022)<ref name = MECP2022>Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks (MECP). 2022. Low Impact Development Stormwater Management Guidance Manual. https://ero.ontario.ca/public/2022-01/Draft%20LID%20Stormwater%20Management%20Guidance%20Manual%202022.pdf</ref>]]