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Line 139: − [[File:Screenshot 2025-08-29 140530.png|400px|thumb|right|Risk thresholds are a useful tool when prioritizing climate change impact management efforts. Low impact and low frequency events may not require management planning, while high impact and high frequency events require adaptation strategies (MECP, 2022)<ref name = MECP2022>Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks (MECP). 2022. Low Impact Development Stormwater Management Guidance Manual. https://ero.ontario.ca/public/2022-01/Draft%20LID%20Stormwater%20Management%20Guidance%20Manual%202022.pdf</ref>]] − − [[File:Screenshot 2025-08-29 144313.png|400px|thumb|right|Historical (grey) global surface temperature compared to a range of projected future surface temperatures based on five emission scenarios (from very low to very high). Not only is the state of future emissions uncertain, but there is also uncertainty associated with each scenario – indicated by the red and blue shaded areas (City of Toronto, 2024)<ref>City of Toronto. 2024. Toronto’s Current and Future Climate. https://www.toronto.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/949f-TorontosCurrentandFutureClimate-REPORT-Final.pdf</ref>]] − − + + +
→Tailoring LID features to climate change
#Calculate projected temperature change – Determine mean annual temperature change between reference and future periods using climate change scenarios
#Calculate projected temperature change – Determine mean annual temperature change between reference and future periods using climate change scenarios
#Summarize results – Report both the median and 75th percentile of projected temperature changes from all climate change scenarios for use in future IDF curve calculations.
#Summarize results – Report both the median and 75th percentile of projected temperature changes from all climate change scenarios for use in future IDF curve calculations.
[[File:Screenshot 2025-08-29 140530.png|400px|thumb|right|Risk thresholds are a useful tool when prioritizing climate change impact management efforts. Low impact and low frequency events may not require management planning, while high impact and high frequency events require adaptation strategies (MECP, 2022)<ref name = MECP2022>Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks (MECP). 2022. Low Impact Development Stormwater Management Guidance Manual. https://ero.ontario.ca/public/2022-01/Draft%20LID%20Stormwater%20Management%20Guidance%20Manual%202022.pdf</ref>]]
====External Sources on Climate Change & IDF Curves====
====External Sources on Climate Change & IDF Curves====
===Climate risk and uncertainty===
===Climate risk and uncertainty===
====Risk====
====Risk====
Risk is typically defined as a combination of the likelihood of failure and the consequences of that failure. More detailed frameworks also consider hazard (what could trigger damage), exposure (what is at stake), vulnerability (sensitivity to hazards), and resulting consequences. In the context of climate change, risk is often expressed as (CSA, 2024)<ref name = CSA2024>CSA. 2024. CSA W204:19: Flood resilient design of new residential communities. https://www.csagroup.org/store/product/CSA%20W204:19/?srsltid=AfmBOooJ2nREEVk6Fsc11wguYzUVcJEYsh3gKVx3-UH876ldmcfR0kYL</ref>:
Risk is typically defined as a combination of the likelihood of failure and the consequences of that failure. More detailed frameworks also consider hazard (what could trigger damage), exposure (what is at stake), vulnerability (sensitivity to hazards), and resulting consequences. In the context of climate change, risk is often expressed as (CSA, 2024)<ref name = CSA2024>CSA. 2024. CSA W204:19: Flood resilient design of new residential communities. https://www.csagroup.org/store/product/CSA%20W204:19/?srsltid=AfmBOooJ2nREEVk6Fsc11wguYzUVcJEYsh3gKVx3-UH876ldmcfR0kYL</ref>:
''Risk = (Probability of Climate Event) × (Probability of Asset Failure Given Event) × (Consequences: a function of exposure and vulnerability)''
''Risk = (Probability of Climate Event) × (Probability of Asset Failure Given Event) × (Consequences: a function of exposure and vulnerability)''
Not all risks can be fully managed; therefore, management efforts are typically prioritized toward impacts that exceed established thresholds of severity and frequency. (MECP, 2022)
Not all risks can be fully managed; therefore, management efforts are typically prioritized toward impacts that exceed established thresholds of severity and frequency. (MECP, 2022).
====Uncertainty====
====Uncertainty====
[[File:Screenshot 2025-08-29 144313.png|500px|thumb|right|Historical (grey) global surface temperature compared to a range of projected future surface temperatures based on five emission scenarios (from very low to very high). Not only is the state of future emissions uncertain, but there is also uncertainty associated with each scenario – indicated by the red and blue shaded areas (City of Toronto, 2024)<ref>City of Toronto. 2024. Toronto’s Current and Future Climate. https://www.toronto.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/949f-TorontosCurrentandFutureClimate-REPORT-Final.pdf</ref>]]
Climate change is inherently characterized by uncertainty, particularly in projecting local impacts. This uncertainty poses challenges for engineers, making risk management a critical tool for prioritizing vulnerabilities and selecting effective risk reduction strategies. Uncertainty surrounding climate impacts underscores the need to build resilience through LID practices (MECP, 2022). The [[No regrets|”no regrets”]] strategy refers to actions, such as LID, that have positive benefits for people and the environment, regardless of how climate change unfolds.<br>
Climate change is inherently characterized by uncertainty, particularly in projecting local impacts. This uncertainty poses challenges for engineers, making risk management a critical tool for prioritizing vulnerabilities and selecting effective risk reduction strategies. Uncertainty surrounding climate impacts underscores the need to build resilience through LID practices (MECP, 2022). The [[No regrets|”no regrets”]] strategy refers to actions, such as LID, that have positive benefits for people and the environment, regardless of how climate change unfolds.<br>
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